Score Predictor: Score Calculation and How to Interpret

Predicted score: 

The Predicted Score is the score you are most likely to get if you continue preparing as you have been doing and take your exam on the target exam date you have shared with usScreenshot 2024-05-30 at 4.28.35 PM.png

Score Range: 

The Predicted Score Range indicates the range within which your score will lie on your exam date 95% of the time. For example, if you were to hypothetically take your USMLE exam 100 times on your target exam date, in 95 out of the 100 attempts, your scores would lie in the prediction range. 
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Likelihood of Passing:

Likelihood of Passing (LOP) is the probability that you will pass the target exam on your target exam date. For example, a likelihood of passing of 99% means that, hypothetically,  if you were to take the target exam on your target exam date 100 times under similar conditions without gaining or losing any knowledge, you would pass 99 out of 100 times.
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Why am I not getting a prediction? 
There are a few reasons why you could not be getting a prediction: 
1. You haven’t submitted a target exam date
          - Enter a target exam date by clicking on “Edit exams.” 
2. You’ve submitted less than two relevant practice exam results
          - To provide an accurate prediction, we need at least 2 relevant practice exam results. Results that are relevant to the score prediction are bolded. You can also submit additional practice exam results (those that are not bolded). These results will not count towards your score prediction but will help us to improve our prediction algorithm and include the exams in the prediction in the future.
3. You’ve submitted less than one relevant practice exam result that is within 4 weeks of the target exam date.
          - To be able to provide an accurate score prediction, one of your practice exam results should be within 4 weeks of your target exam date. Please submit one relevant practice exam result that is within 4 weeks of your target exam or change your target exam date so that it is within 4 weeks of your last submitted practice exam result.

Step 1 is pass/fail, how does the 3-digit score prediction help me better understand my performance?
- The 3-digit Predicted Score provides additional insights into your performance and depth of knowledge on the exam content. A higher Predicted Score not only indicates a stronger understanding but also gives a clearer indication of how well you might perform relative to the passing standard. For example, if you have a Predicted Score of 215 with a 99% Likelihood of Passing (score range 205 to 224), versus a Predicted Score of 235 with a 99% Likelihood of Passing (score range 225 to 245), the higher score suggests a greater confidence in your ability to pass the exam.

What do the text study recommendations in the Step 1 prediction mean?
- Red: Likelihood of Passing < 50%Screenshot 2024-05-30 at 4.32.48 PM.png
There is a high chance you might not pass the exam, so we'd strongly recommend additional preparation! 

- Yellow: Likelihood of Passing 51-90%
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We recommend additional preparation! To ensure a high likelihood of passing, consider further studying before the exam.

- Green: Likelihood of Passing > 90% 
Screenshot 2024-05-30 at 4.32.20 PM.pngYou’re very likely to pass this exam. Your preparation has been excellent, and you can confidently proceed with your scheduled exam date!

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